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| Titel |
Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Ruiz-Ramos, E. Sánchez, C. Gallardo, M. I. Mínguez |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 12 ; Nr. 11, no. 12 (2011-12-12), S.3275-3291 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009832
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-3275-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high
temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain
filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take
insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of
maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the
20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of
further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and
future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula
are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and
summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten
Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation
models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated.
Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a
threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian
Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the
two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme
temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally,
this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact
projections from previous studies. |
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