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| Titel |
Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a stochastic storm surge model |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Wahl, C. Mudersbach, J. Jensen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 11 ; Nr. 11, no. 11 (2011-11-04), S.2925-2939 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009777
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2925-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper describes a methodology to stochastically simulate a large number
of storm surge scenarios (here: 10 million). The applied model is very cheap
in computation time and will contribute to improve the overall results from
integrated risk analyses in coastal areas. Initially, the observed storm
surge events from the tide gauges of Cuxhaven (located in the Elbe estuary)
and Hörnum (located in the southeast of Sylt Island) are parameterised
by taking into account 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time
parameters). Throughout the paper, the total water levels are considered.
The astronomical tides are semidiurnal in the investigation area with a
tidal range >2 m. The second step of the stochastic simulation consists in
fitting parametric distribution functions to the data sets resulting from
the parameterisation. The distribution functions are then used to run
Monte-Carlo-Simulations. Based on the simulation results, a large number of
storm surge scenarios are reconstructed. Parameter interdependencies are
considered and different filter functions are applied to avoid
inconsistencies. Storm surge scenarios, which are of interest for risk analyses, can
easily be extracted from the results. |
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