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| Titel |
European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models |
| VerfasserIn |
M. R. Haylock |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 10 ; Nr. 11, no. 10 (2011-10-26), S.2847-2857 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009738
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2847-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms
was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate
model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled
atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a
model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed.
The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical
storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the
period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the
25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model
grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an
empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were
statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the
geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust
speed.
The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe
reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European
population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a
50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total
insured value of the portfolio. |
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