 |
| Titel |
Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity |
| VerfasserIn |
M. G. Pereira, L. Caramelo, C. Gouveia, J. Gomes-Laranjo, M. Magalhães |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 10 ; Nr. 11, no. 10 (2011-10-12), S.2729-2739 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009728
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2729-2011.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Due to its economic and nutritional value, the world production of chestnuts is
increasing as new stands are being planted in various regions of the world.
This work focuses on the relation between weather and annual chestnut
production to model the role of weather, to assess the impacts of climate
change and to identify appropriate locations for new groves. The exploratory
analysis of chestnut production time series and the striking increase of
production area have motivated the use for chestnut productivity. A large set
of meteorological variables and remote sensing indices were computed and
their role on chestnut productivity evaluated with composite and correlation
analyses. These results allow for the identification of the variables cluster with
a high correlation and impact on chestnut production. Then, different
selection methods were used to develop multiple regression models able to
explain a considerable fraction of productivity variance: (i) a simulation
model (R2-value = 87%) based on the winter and summer temperature and on
spring and summer precipitation variables; and, (ii) a model to predict
yearly chestnut productivity (R2-value of 63%) with five months in
advance, combining meteorological variables and NDVI. Goodness of fit statistic,
cross validation and residual analysis demonstrate the model's quality,
usefulness and consistency of obtained results. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|