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| Titel |
Future water availability in selected European catchments: a probabilistic assessment of seasonal flows under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using response surfaces |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Weiss |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 8 ; Nr. 11, no. 8 (2011-08-04), S.2163-2171 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009616
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2163-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A grid-based water balance model is used to quantify exceedance
probabilities of high and low stream flow thresholds, and analyse their
progression over the course of the 21st century. The analysis is
carried out for 18 European river basins using the response surface method
in combination with probabilistic projections of climate change, conditional
to the IPCC A1B emission scenario up to 2100. According to this study,
Nordic basins have the highest probability of high flow threshold violation
in Europe, while in Central and Southern European basins, the probability of
low flow threshold violation is highest. While the high flow violation
occurs mostly during winter, with other seasons being likewise probable, low
flow violation only occurs in summer. Some basins are facing an increased
stream flow amplitude, having high probabilities for both, high flow and low
flow violations. |
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