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| Titel |
Comparison of past and future Mediterranean high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow projected using different statistical downscaling methods |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Quintana-Seguí, F. Habets, E. Martin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 5 ; Nr. 11, no. 5 (2011-05-16), S.1411-1432 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009421
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1411-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The extremes of precipitation and river flow obtained using three different
statistical downscaling methods applied to the same regional climate
simulation have been compared. The methods compared are the anomaly method,
quantile mapping and a weather typing. The hydrological model used in the
study is distributed and it is applied to the Mediterranean basins of France.
The study shows that both quantile mapping and weather typing methods are
able to reproduce the high and low precipitation extremes in the region of
interest. The study also shows that when the hydrological model is forced
with these downscaled data, there are important differences in the outputs.
This shows that the model amplifies the differences and that the downscaling
of other atmospheric variables might be very relevant when simulating river
discharges. In terms of river flow, the method of the anomalies, which is
very simple, performs better than expected. The methods produce qualitatively
similar future scenarios of the extremes of river flow. However,
quantitatively, there are still significant differences between them for each
individual gauging station. According to these scenarios, it is expected
that in the middle of the 21st century (2035–2064), the monthly low flows
will have diminished almost everywhere in the region of our study by as much
as 20 %. Regarding high flows, there will be important increases in the area
of the Cévennes, which is already seriously affected by flash-floods. For
some gauging stations in this area, the frequency of what was a 10-yr
return flood at the end of the 20th century is expected to increase, with
such return floods then occurring every two years in the middle of the 21st
century. Similarly, the 10-yr return floods at that time are expected to
carry 100 % more water than the 10-yr return floods experienced at the end
of the 20th century. In the northern part of the Rhône basin, these extremes
will be reduced. |
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