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| Titel |
Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Roulin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2007-01-17), S.725-737 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009212
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-11-725-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model
with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is
evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed
from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow
exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value
of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification
results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the
corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained
by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a
higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean. |
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