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| Titel |
Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Hosek, P. Musilek, E. Lozowski, P. Pytlak |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2011-02-22), S.587-595 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009170
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-587-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms.
These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage
structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure.
For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing
events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The
case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event
that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a
numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate
a forecast of this event.
The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological
variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to
accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons.
The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the
night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model
runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a
factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air
temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable
for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to
the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results
indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of
reported damage and power outages. |
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