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| Titel |
Identification of earthquake precursors in the hydrogeochemical and geoacoustic data for the Kamchatka peninsula by flicker-noise spectroscopy |
| VerfasserIn |
G. V. Ryabinin, Yu. S. Polyakov, V. A. Gavrilov, S. F. Timashev |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2011-02-18), S.541-548 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009166
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-541-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in
multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active
region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be
preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) on different time and
space scales. A nonstationarity factor introduced within the framework of
flicker-noise spectroscopy, a statistical physics approach to the analysis of
time series, is used as the dimensionless criterion for detecting qualitative
(precursory) changes within relatively short time intervals in arbitrary
signals. Nonstationarity factors for chlorine-ion concentration variations in
the underground water of two boreholes on the Kamchatka peninsula and
geacoustic emissions in a deep borehole within the same seismic zone are
studied together in the time frame around a large earthquake on 8 October
2001. It is shown that nonstationarity factor spikes (potential precursors)
take place in the interval from 70 to 50 days before the earthquake for the
hydrogeochemical data and at 29 and 6 days in advance for the geoacoustic
data. |
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