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| Titel |
Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine |
| VerfasserIn |
A. H. Linde, P. Bubeck, J. E. C. Dekkers, H. Moel, J. C. J. H. Aerts |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2011-02-15), S.459-473 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009159
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-459-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management
approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of
flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic
development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To
optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed
that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this
paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the
entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based
on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two
different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a
damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two
climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into
seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage
in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major
part (~ three-quarters) can be accounted for by climate change. The
highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands
(110 billion €), compared with the second (80 billion €)
and third (62 billion €) highest values in two areas in Germany.
Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is
located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood
protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany. |
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