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| Titel |
Seismicity dynamics and earthquake predictability |
| VerfasserIn |
G. A. Sobolev |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2011-02-14), S.445-458 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009158
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-445-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Many factors complicate earthquake sequences, including
the heterogeneity and self-similarity of the geological medium, the hierarchical
structure of faults and stresses, and small-scale variations in the stresses from
different sources. A seismic process is a type of nonlinear dissipative
system demonstrating opposing trends towards order and chaos. Transitions
from equilibrium to unstable equilibrium and local dynamic instability appear
when there is an inflow of energy; reverse transitions appear when energy is
dissipating. Several metastable areas of a different scale exist in the
seismically active region before an earthquake. Some earthquakes are
preceded by precursory phenomena of a different scale in space and time. These
include long-term activation, seismic quiescence, foreshocks in the broad and
narrow sense, hidden periodical vibrations, effects of the synchronization of
seismic activity, and others. Such phenomena indicate that the dynamic system
of lithosphere is moving to a new state – catastrophe. A number of examples
of medium-term and short-term precursors is shown in this paper. However, no
precursors identified to date are clear and unambiguous: the percentage of
missed targets and false alarms is high. The weak fluctuations from outer and
internal sources play a great role on the eve of an earthquake and the
occurrence time of the future event depends on the collective behavior of
triggers. The main task is to improve the methods of metastable zone
detection and probabilistic forecasting. |
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