 |
| Titel |
Ensemble analysis of frost damage on vegetation caused by spring backlashes in a warmer Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
A. M. Jönsson, L. Bärring |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2011-02-10), S.401-418 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009155
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-401-2011.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
Tree dehardening and budburst will occur earlier in a warmer climate, and
this could lead to an increased risk of frost damage caused by temperature
backlashes. By using a spring backlash index and a cold hardiness model, we
assessed different aspects of risk for frost damage in Norway spruce forests
during the present climate and for one future emission scenario. Uncertainties
associated with climate modelling were quantified by using temperature data
from three climate data sets: (1) E-Obs gridded observed climate data, (2) an
ensemble of data from eight regional climate models (RCM) forced by ERA-40
reanalysis data, (3) an ensemble of regional climate scenarios produced by
the regional climate model RCA3 driven at the boundary conditions by seven
global climate models (GCM), all representing the SRES A1B emission scenario.
The frost risk was analysed for three periods, 1961–1990, 2011–2040 and
2070–2097. The RCA3_GCM ensemble indicated that the risk for spring frost
damage may increase in the boreo-nemoral forest zone of southern Scandinavia
and the Baltic states/Belarus. This is due to an increased frequency of
backlashes, lower freezing temperatures after the onset of the vegetation period
and the last spring frost occurring when the trees are closer to budburst.
The changes could be transient due to the fine balance between an increased
risk of frost damage caused by dehardening during a period when freezing
temperatures are common and a decreased risk caused by warmer temperatures.
In the nemoral zone, the zone with highest risk for spring backlashes during the
reference period (1961–1990), the spring frost severity may increase due to
frost events occurring when the trees are closer to budburst. However, the
risk in terms of frequency of backlashes and freezing temperature were
projected to become lower already in the beginning of this century. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|