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| Titel |
Comparison of different approaches to quantify the reliability of hydrological simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Gattke, A. Schumann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Large-scale hydrological modelling and the European Union water policies ; Nr. 11 (2007-05-16), S.15-20 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009003
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-11-15-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The focus of this study was to compare different uncertainty estimation
approaches to evaluate their ability to predict the total amount of
uncertainty in hydrological model predictions. Three different approaches
have been compared. Two of them were based on Monte-Carlo sampling and the
third approach was based on fitting a probability model to the error series
of an optimized simulation. These approaches have been applied to a lumped
and a semi-distributed model variant, to investigate the effects of changes
in the model structure on the uncertainty assessment. The probability model
was not able to predict the total amount of uncertainty when compared with
the Monte-Carlo based approaches. The uncertainty related to the simulation
of flood events was systematically underestimated. |
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