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| Titel |
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century |
| VerfasserIn |
A. J. Charlton-Perez, E. Hawkins, V. Eyring, I. Cionni, G. E. Bodeker, D. E. Kinnison, H. Akiyoshi, S. M. Frith, R. García, A. Gettelman, J. F. Lamarque, T. Nakamura, S. Pawson, Y. Yamashita, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, M. P. Chipperfield, S. Dhomse, M. Marchand, E. Mancini, O. Morgenstern, G. Pitari, D. Plummer, J. A. Pyle, E. Rozanov, J. Scinocca, K. Shibata, T. G. Shepherd, W. Tian, D. W. Waugh |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 10, no. 19 ; Nr. 10, no. 19 (2010-10-07), S.9473-9486 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008813
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-10-9473-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes
in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in
stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in
anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development
pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate
change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of
stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of
opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution
of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs
and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the
contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the
chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone
concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences
between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds
of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations
return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon
the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the
dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in
chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of
stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone
concentrations to pre-1980 levels. |
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