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| Titel |
Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Huttenlau, J. Stötter  , H. Stiefelmeyer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 12 ; Nr. 10, no. 12 (2010-12-03), S.2451-2473 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008527
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2451-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of
Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was
serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event
have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining
to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential
consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised.
Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the
insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are
especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme
events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive
appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability
losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of
great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main
indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural
scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and
structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk,
their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally,
this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis,
exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the
conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and
their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete
losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various
individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk
analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in
the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences
of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize,
and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and
inventory, vehicles, and individuals, a detailed geodatabase of the existing
stock of elements and values was established on a single object level.
Therefore, the localized and functional differentiated stock of elements was
assessed monetarily on the basis of derived representative mean insurance
values. Thus, well known difference factors between the analysis of the stock
of elements and values on local and on regional scale could be reduced
considerably. The spatial join of the results of the hazard analysis with the
stock of elements and values enables the identification and quantification of
the elements at risk and their corresponding damage potential. Thereupon,
Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) were analysed under consideration of different
vulnerability approaches which describe the individual element's specific
susceptibility. This results in scenario-specific ranges of ESL rather than
in single values. The exposure analysis of the general endangerment in Tyrol
identifies (i) 105 330 individuals, (ii) 20 272 buildings and
50 157 dwellings with a corresponding damage potential of approx.
EUR 20 bn. and (iii) 62 494 vehicles with a corresponding damage
potential of EUR 1 bn. Depending on the individual extreme event scenarios,
the ESL solely to buildings and inventory vary between EUR 0.9–1.3 bn.
for the scenario with the least ESL and EUR 2.2–2.5 bn. for the most
serious scenarios. The correlation of the private property losses to
buildings and inventory with further direct tangible loss categories on the
basis of investigation after the event in 2005, results in potential direct
tangible ESL of up to EUR 7.6 bn. Apart from the specific study results a
general finding shows that beside the further development of modelling
capabilities and scenario concepts, the key to considerably decrease
uncertainties of integral flood risk analyses is the development and
implementation of more precise methods. These are to determine the stock of
elements and values and to evaluate the vulnerability or susceptibility of
affected structures to certain flood characteristics more differentiated. |
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