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| Titel |
Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Blahut, P. Horton, S. Sterlacchini, M. Jaboyedoff |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 11 ; Nr. 10, no. 11 (2010-11-25), S.2379-2390 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008506
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2379-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of
various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried
out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability
(spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas.
Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of
Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The
complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of
local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of
process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of
hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the
available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of
aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the
hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical
GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne
(Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as
the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at
medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used
together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as
inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard
initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely
to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow
direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were
calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two
debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard
zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow
spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected
by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the
models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling
factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard
analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple
assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent
hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of
the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed. |
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