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| Titel |
Multiphysics superensemble forecast applied to Mediterranean heavy precipitation situations |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Vich, R. Romero |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 11 ; Nr. 10, no. 11 (2010-11-25), S.2371-2377 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008505
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2371-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The high-impact precipitation events that regularly affect the western
Mediterranean coastal regions are still difficult to predict with the current
prediction systems. Bearing this in mind, this paper focuses on the
superensemble technique applied to the precipitation field. Encouraged by the
skill shown by a previous multiphysics ensemble prediction system applied to
western Mediterranean precipitation events, the superensemble is fed with
this ensemble.
The training phase of the superensemble contributes to the actual forecast
with weights obtained by comparing the past performance of the ensemble
members and the corresponding observed states. The non-hydrostatic MM5
mesoscale model is used to run the multiphysics ensemble. Simulations are
performed with a 22.5 km resolution domain (Domain 1 in
http://mm5forecasts.uib.es)
nested in the ECMWF forecast fields. The
period between September and December 2001 is used to train the superensemble
and a collection of 19~MEDEX cyclones is used to test it.
The verification procedure involves testing the superensemble performance and
comparing it with that of the poor-man and bias-corrected ensemble mean and
the multiphysic EPS control member. The results emphasize the need of a
well-behaved training phase to obtain good results with the superensemble
technique. A strategy to obtain this improved training phase is already
outlined. |
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