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| Titel |
Influence of flood frequency on residential building losses |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Elmer, A. H. Thieken, I. Pech, H. Kreibich |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 10 ; Nr. 10, no. 10 (2010-10-11), S.2145-2159 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008447
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2145-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| For the purpose of flood risk analysis, reliable loss models are an
indispensable need. The most common models use stage-damage functions
relating damage to water depth. They are often derived from empirical flood
loss data (i.e. loss data collected after a flood event). However, object
specific loss data (e.g. losses of single residential buildings) from recent
flood events in Germany showed higher average losses in less probable
events, regardless of actual water level. Hence, models that were derived
from such data tend to overestimate losses caused by more probable events.
Therefore, it is the aim of the study to analyse the relation between flood
damage and recurrence interval and to propose a method for considering
recurrence interval in flood loss modelling. The survey was based on
residential building loss data (n=2158) of recent flood events in 2002, 2005
and 2006 in Germany and on-site recurrence interval of the respective
events. We discovered a highly significant positive correlation between loss
extent and recurrence interval for classified water levels as well as
increasing average losses for longer recurrence intervals within each class.
The application of principal component analysis revealed the interrelation
between factors that influence the damage extent directly or indirectly, and
recurrence interval. No single factor or component could be identified that
explained the influence of recurrence interval, which led to the conclusion
that recurrence interval cannot substitute, but complement other damage
influencing factors in flood loss modelling approaches. Finally, a method
was developed to include recurrence interval in typical flood loss models
and make them applicable to a wider range of flood events. Validation
including statistical error analysis showed that the modified models improve
loss estimates in comparison to traditional approaches. The proposed
multi-parameter model FLEMOps+r performs particularly well. |
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