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| Titel |
Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, São Paulo, Brazil |
| VerfasserIn |
B. C. Vieira, N. F. Fernandes, O. A. Filho |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 9 ; Nr. 10, no. 9 (2010-09-06), S.1829-1837 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008395
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1829-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow
landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based
models present advantages associated with the physical description
of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective
of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using
TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain
range, São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility
scenarios have been simulated taking into account different
mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed
based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon
which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC – ratio
between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total
number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide
Potential (LP – ratio between the number of cells with scars, in
each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The
results showed a significant agreement between the simulated
scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF≤1), the SC
values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use
of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow
landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and
hydrological properties of the materials are not well known. |
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