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| Titel |
Uncertainties in estimating mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants in China |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Wu, D. G. Streets, S. X. Wang, J. M. Hao |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6 (2010-03-29), S.2937-2946 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008266
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-10-2937-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A detailed multiple-year inventory of mercury emissions from anthropogenic
activities in China has been developed. Coal combustion and nonferrous
metals production continue to be the two leading mercury sources in China,
together contributing ~80% of total mercury emissions. However,
many uncertainties still remain in our knowledge of primary anthropogenic
releases of mercury to the atmosphere in China. In situations involving
large uncertainties, our previous mercury emission inventory that used a
deterministic approach could produce results that might not be a true
reflection of reality; and in such cases stochastic simulations
incorporating uncertainties need to be performed. Within our inventory, a
new comprehensive sub-module for estimation of mercury emissions from
coal-fired power plants in China is constructed as an uncertainty case
study. The new sub-module integrates up-to-date information regarding
mercury content in coal by province, coal washing and cleaning, coal
consumption by province, mercury removal efficiencies by control technology
or technology combinations, etc. Based on these detailed data,
probability-based distribution functions are built into the sub-module to
address the uncertainties of these key parameters. The sub-module
incorporates Monte Carlo simulations to take into account the probability
distributions of key input parameters and produce the mercury emission
results in the form of a statistical distribution. For example, the best
estimate for total mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants in China
in 2003 is 90.5 Mg, with the uncertainty range from 57.1 Mg (P10) to
154.6 Mg (P90); and the best estimate for elemental mercury emissions is 43.0 Mg,
with the uncertainty range from 25.6 Mg (P10) to 75.7 Mg (P90). The results
further indicate that the majority of the uncertainty in mercury emission
estimation comes from two factors: mercury content of coal and mercury
removal efficiency. |
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