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| Titel |
Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Jaiswal, C. J. van. Westen, V. Jetten |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6 (2010-06-17), S.1253-1267 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008232
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1253-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation
lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the
Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk
affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting
from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk
estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides
were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road
alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on
the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their
probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution.
Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a
given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel
distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific
hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six
return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the
vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records
whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was
subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific
loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry,
car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US$), and direct
specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of
death. Indirect specific loss (US$) derived from the traffic interruption
was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses
resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of
income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department.
The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect
loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US$ 90 840 to
US$ 779 500 and the average annual total loss was estimated as
US$ 35 000. The annual probability of a person most at risk travelling in
a bus, lorry, car, motorbike and train is less than 10-4/annum in all
the time periods considered. The detailed estimation of direct and indirect
risk will facilitate developing landslide risk mitigation and management
strategies for transportation lines in the study area. |
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