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| Titel |
Can an ensemble give anything more than Gaussian probabilities? |
| VerfasserIn |
J. C. W. Denholm-Price |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6, S.469-475 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008203
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-10-469-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Can a relatively
small numerical weather prediction ensemble produce any more forecast
information than can be reproduced by a Gaussian probability density
function (PDF)? This question is examined using site-specific probability
forecasts from the UK Met Office. These forecasts are based on the
51-member Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for
Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Verification using Brier skill scores
suggests that there can be statistically-significant skill in the ensemble
forecast PDF compared with a Gaussian fit to the ensemble. The most
significant increases in skill were achieved from bias-corrected,
calibrated forecasts and for probability forecasts of thresholds that are
located well inside the climatological limits at the examined sites.
Forecast probabilities for more climatologically-extreme thresholds, where
the verification more often lies within the tails or outside of the PDF,
showed little difference in skill between the forecast PDF and the
Gaussian forecast. |
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