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| Titel |
Increasing the horizontal resolution of ensemble forecasts at CMC |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Pellerin, L. Lefaivre, P. Houtekamer, C. Girard |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 10, no. 6 ; Nr. 10, no. 6, S.463-468 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008202
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-10-463-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ensemble forecasts are run
operationally since February 1998 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre,
with outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to
sixteen members in August 1999. The method of producing the perturbed
analyses consists of running independent assimilation cycles that use
perturbed sets of observations and are driven by eight different models,
mainly different in their physical parameterizations. Perturbed analyses
are doubled by taking opposite pairs. A multi-model approach is then used
to obtain the forecasts. The ensemble output has been used to generate
several products. In view of increasing computing facilities, the ensemble
prediction system horizontal resolution was increased to TL149 in June
2001. Heights at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure maps are regularly
used. Charts of precipitation with the probability of precipitation being
above various thresholds are also produced at each run. The probabilistic
forecast of the 24-h accumulated precipitation has shown skill as
demonstrated by the relative operating characteristic (ROC). Verifications
of the ensemble forecasts will be presented. |
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