 |
| Titel |
Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal |
| VerfasserIn |
J. C. Verde, J. L. Zêzere |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 3 ; Nr. 10, no. 3 (2010-03-16), S.485-497 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008005
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-485-2010.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| A comprehensive methodology to assess forest fire susceptibility,
that uses variables of strong spatial correlation, is presented and
applied for the Portuguese mainland. Our study is based on a
thirty-year chronological series of burnt areas. The first twenty
years (1975–1994) are used for statistical modelling, and the last
ten (1995–2004) are used for the independent validation of results.
The wildfire affected areas are crossed with a set of independent
layers that are assumed to be relevant wildfire conditioning
factors: elevation, slope, land cover, rainfall and temperature.
Moreover, the wildfire recurring pattern is also considered, as a
proxy variable expressing the influence of human action in wildfire
occurrence. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the
weight of each individual theme within the susceptibility model.
Validation of the wildfire susceptibility models is made through the
computation of success rate and prediction rate curves. The results
show that it is possible to have a good compromise between the
number of variables within the model and the model predictive power.
Additionally, it is shown that integration of climatic variables
does not produce any relevant increase in the prediction capacity of
wildfire susceptibility models. Finally, the prediction rate curves
produced by the independent cross validation are used to assess the
probabilistic wildfire hazard at a scenario basis, for the complete
mainland Portuguese territory. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|