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| Titel |
Precipitation rate spectra as dependent on dynamic forcing: application to probabilistic forecasting |
| VerfasserIn |
N. P. Chakina, E. N. Skriptunova, A. R. Ivanova |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Observation, Prediction and Verification of Precipitation (EGU Session 2006) ; Nr. 10 (2007-04-26), S.153-158 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007867
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-10-153-2007.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Occurrence frequencies, OF, of 12-h precipitation amounts, P, at stations in
the former European USSR are displayed as dependent on dynamic forcing of
vertical motions. The dynamic forcing is described by a "frontal
parameter", F (calculated in the points of objective analysis grid), which
depends on the surface pressure field curvature and on the baroclinicity in
the lower half of the troposphere. The precipitation rate spectra for 4
seasons, calculated from a large sample of data (7 years, about 650 000
values of P for one season), show a monotonous OF growth of all ranges of
P>1 mm/12 h with F increase. The growth is especially significant for
heavy precipitation. As a result, F is shown to be an informative predictor
of P spectrum or of probability of any given range of P. As a next step,
two-dimensional spectra of precipitation occurrence frequency, as a function
of F and LNB, that is, OF (F, LNB), are calculated, LNB being the level of
neutral buoyancy at the gridpoint, an estimate of grid-scale convective
instability. On this basis, an approach to probabilistic forecasting is
suggested. |
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