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| Titel |
Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change |
| VerfasserIn |
R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, J. Pongratz, G. R. Werf, R. S. DeFries, M. C. Hansen, C. Quéré, N. Ramankutty |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 9, no. 12 ; Nr. 9, no. 12 (2012-12-13), S.5125-5142 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007461
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-9-5125-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The net flux of carbon from land use and land-cover change (LULCC) accounted
for 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010. This net
flux is the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget, not only because
of uncertainties in rates of deforestation and forestation, but also because
of uncertainties in the carbon density of the lands actually undergoing
change. Furthermore, there are differences in approaches used to determine
the flux that introduce variability into estimates in ways that are difficult
to evaluate, and not all analyses consider the same types of management
activities. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are
summarized here. In addition to deforestation, all analyses considered
changes in the area of agricultural lands (croplands and pastures). Some
considered, also, forest management (wood harvest, shifting cultivation).
None included emissions from the degradation of tropical peatlands. Means and
standard deviations across the thirteen model estimates of annual emissions
for the 1980s and 1990s, respectively, are 1.14 ± 0.23 and
1.12 ± 0.25 Pg C yr−1 (1 Pg = 1015 g carbon). Four
studies also considered the period 2000–2009, and the mean and standard
deviations across these four for the three decades are 1.14 ± 0.39,
1.17 ± 0.32, and 1.10 ± 0.11 Pg C yr−1. For the period
1990–2009 the mean global emissions from LULCC are
1.14 ± 0.18 Pg C yr−1. The standard deviations across model
means shown here are smaller than previous estimates of uncertainty as they
do not account for the errors that result from data uncertainty and from an
incomplete understanding of all the processes affecting the net flux of
carbon from LULCC. Although these errors have not been systematically
evaluated, based on partial analyses available in the literature and expert
opinion, they are estimated to be on the order
of ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1. |
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