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| Titel |
How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Gottschalk, J. U. Smith, M. Wattenbach, J. Bellarby, E. Stehfest, N. Arnell, T. J. Osborn, C. Jones, P. Smith |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1726-4170
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Biogeosciences ; 9, no. 8 ; Nr. 9, no. 8 (2012-08-14), S.3151-3171 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007240
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/bg-9-3151-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models
for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on
global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall
global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a
different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions
scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but
have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or
lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition.
Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst
decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be
slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing
SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC
losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC
decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased
NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to
higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC
to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and
loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type
and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in
the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single
answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future
climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on
improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and
direction of change, and the land management practices that can be
implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks. |
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