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| Titel |
Dealing with uncertainty: turbulent parameterizations and grid-spacing effects in numerical modelling of deep moist convective processes |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Fiori, A. Parodi, F. Siccardi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 6 ; Nr. 9, no. 6 (2009-11-17), S.1871-1880 |
| Datensatznummer |
250007056
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1871-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Computer power has grown to the point that very-fine-mesh mesoscale modelling
is now possible. Going down through scales is clumsily supposed to reduce
uncertainty and to improve the predictive ability of the models. This work
provides a contribution to understand how the uncertainty in the numerical
weather prediction (NWP) of severe weather events is affected by increasing
the model grid resolution and by choosing a parameterization which is able to
represent turbulent processes at such finer scales.
A deep moist convective scenario, a supercell, in a simplified atmospheric
setting is studied by mean of high resolution numerical simulations with
COSMO-Model. Different turbulent closures are used and their impacts on the
space-time properties of convective fields are discussed. The
convective-resolving solutions adopting Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulent
closure converge with respect to the overall flow field structure when grid
spacing is properly reduced. By comparing the rainfall fields produced by the
model on larger scales with those at the convergence scales it's possible to
size up the uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself on the predicted
ground effects in such simplified scenario. |
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