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| Titel |
Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction |
| VerfasserIn |
B. T. Gouweleeuw, J. Thielen, G. Franchello, A. P. J. Roo, R. Buizza |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2005-10-07), S.365-380 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006969
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-9-365-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting
over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a
shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach
towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this
probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well
established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters
have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users
the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction
Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with
rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by
combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the
large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the
river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In
addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow
prediction is proposed. |
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