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| Titel |
Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Kobold, K. Sušelj |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2005-10-07), S.322-332 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006966
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-9-322-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Torrential streams and fast runoff are characteristic of most Slovenian
rivers and extensive damage is caused almost every year by rainstorms
affecting different regions of Slovenia. Rainfall-runoff models which are
tools for runoff calculation can be used for flood forecasting. In Slovenia,
the lag time between rainfall and runoff is only a few hours and on-line data
are used only for now-casting. Predicted precipitation is necessary in flood
forecasting some days ahead. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts) model gives general forecasts several days ahead while
more detailed precipitation data with the ALADIN/SI model are available for
two days ahead. Combining the weather forecasts with the information on
catchment conditions and a hydrological forecasting model can give advance
warning of potential flooding notwithstanding a certain degree of uncertainty
in using precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. Analysis of
the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the rainfall error has shown
that the deviation in runoff is much larger than the rainfall deviation.
Therefore, verification of predicted precipitation for large precipitation
events was performed with the ECMWF model. Measured precipitation data were
interpolated on a regular grid and compared with the results from the ECMWF
model. The deviation in predicted precipitation from interpolated
measurements is shown with the model bias resulting from the inability of the
model to predict the precipitation correctly and a bias for horizontal
resolution of the model and natural variability of precipitation. |
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