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| Titel |
Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Avise, J. Chen, B. Lamb, C. Wiedinmyer, A. Guenther, E. Salathé, C. Mass |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2009-02-16), S.1111-1124 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006914
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-9-1111-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions,
background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on summertime
regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix
of downscaled regional air quality simulations, where each set of
simulations was conducted for five months of July climatology, using the
Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Projected regional scale
changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario are derived through the
downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM) output with the MM5
meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained
through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical
Tracers, version 2.4) global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario.
Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA
Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS), and changes in land-use are
projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Spatially
Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM). For July conditions, changes in
chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv)
on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic
emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use
changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air
quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon
emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered
simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in
biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv). Changes in average 24-h (A24-h)
PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in
anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3), while changes in chemical
boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change
reduces A24-h PM2.5 concentrations by −0.9 μg m−3, but this
reduction is more than tripled in the Southeastern US due to increased
precipitation and wet deposition. |
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