 |
| Titel |
Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Nijssen, A. Schumann, M. Pahlow, B. Klein |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 4 ; Nr. 9, no. 4 (2009-08-06), S.1349-1363 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006898
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-1349-2009.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium,
the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk
management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures
it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends
on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events
used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the
hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control
measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems
differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the
spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting
flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements,
e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these
systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be
evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic
assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration
of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of
this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A
statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data
base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events.
Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a
deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to
produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of
possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many
uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the
modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to
characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood
scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time
series. With regard to these known unknowns the bias of the simulations was
considered by imprecise probabilities. Probabilities, derived from measured
flood data were combined with probabilities which were estimated from long
simulated series. To consider imprecise probabilities, fuzzy sets were used
to distinguish the results between more or less possible design floods. The
need for such a differentiated view on the performance of flood protection
systems is demonstrated by a case study. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|