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| Titel |
A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard |
| VerfasserIn |
A. T. Mendoza-Rosas, S. Cruz-Reyna |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 9, no. 2 ; Nr. 9, no. 2 (2009-03-19), S.425-431 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006710
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-9-425-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation.
The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important
information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given
time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard
assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to
describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a
mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential
distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that
may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in
specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) categories. The most striking
property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density
function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull
distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and
time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that
can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the
mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to
apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of
exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can
be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply
the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences
between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes,
México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other
distributions. |
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