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| Titel |
Using modern time series analysis techniques to predict ENSO events from the SOI time series |
| VerfasserIn |
J. I. Salisbury, M. Wimbush |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 9, no. 3/4 ; Nr. 9, no. 3/4, S.341-345 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006547
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-9-341-2002.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
We analyze the
monthly 1866-2000 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data to determine:
1) whether the SOI data are sufficiently noise-free that
useful predictions can be made from them, and
2) in particular, whether future ENSO events can be
predicted from the SOI data.
The "Hilbert-EMD" technique is used to aid the
analysis. This new frequency-time algorithm, based on the Hilbert
transform, may be applied to time series for which the conventional
assumptions of linearity and stationarity may not apply.
With the aid of the EMD procedure, a cleaner
representation of ENSO dynamics is obtained from the SOI data. A
polynomial function is then used to predict SOI values. Using only the
data from January 1866 through December 1996, this prediction correctly
indicated a warm event in 1997-1998 and a cold event in 1999. Using all
the data (through December 2000), this prediction shows no strong ENSO
events (positive or negative) during the time period January 2001 through
December 2004. |
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