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| Titel |
Interannual-to-decadal variability of the stratosphere during the 20th century: ensemble simulations with a chemistry-climate model |
| VerfasserIn |
A. M. Fischer, M. Schraner, E. Rozanov, P. Kenzelmann, C. Schnadt Poberaj, D. Brunner, A. Lustenberger, B. P. Luo, G. E. Bodeker, T. Egorova, W. Schmutz, T. Peter, S. Brönnimann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 8, no. 24 ; Nr. 8, no. 24 (2008-12-23), S.7755-7777 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006532
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-8-7755-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Interannual-to-decadal variability in stratospheric ozone and climate have a
number of common sources, such as variations in solar irradiance,
stratospheric aerosol loading due to volcanic eruptions, El Niño
Southern Oscillation variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO).
Currently available data records as well as model simulations addressing
stratospheric chemical climate variability mostly cover only the past few
decades, which is often insufficient to address natural
interannual-to-decadal variability. Here we make use of recently
reconstructed and re-evaluated data products to force and validate transient
ensemble model simulations (nine members) across the twentieth century
computed by means of the chemistry-climate model SOCOL (SOlar Climate Ozone
Links). The forcings include sea surface temperatures, sea ice, solar
irradiance, stratospheric aerosols, QBO, changes in land properties,
greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and emissions of carbon
monoxides, and nitrogen oxides. The transient simulations are in good
agreement with observations, reconstructions and reanalyses and allow
quantification of interannual-to-decadal variability during the 20th
century. All ensemble members are able to capture the low-frequency
variability in tropical and mid-latitude total ozone as well as in the
strength of the subtropical jet, suggesting a realistic response to external
forcings in this area. The region of the northern polar vortex exhibits a
large internal variability that is found in the frequency, seasonality, and
strength of major warmings as well as in the strength of the modeled polar
vortex. Results from process-oriented analysis, such as correlation between
the vertical Eliassen Palm flux (EP flux) component and polar variables as
well as stratospheric ozone trends, are of comparable magnitude to those
observed and are consistent in all analysed ensemble members. Yet, trend
estimates of the vertical EP flux component vary greatly among ensemble
members precluding any robust conclusions. This suggests that internal
variability in models must be accounted for in order to quantify the
atmospheric model response in wave energy upon external forcings. |
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