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| Titel |
The role of climate and emission changes in future air quality over southern Canada and northern Mexico |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Tagaris, K.-J. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, S. He, J.-H. Woo, P. Amar, A. G. Russell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 8, no. 14 ; Nr. 8, no. 14 (2008-07-24), S.3973-3983 |
| Datensatznummer |
250006299
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-8-3973-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Potential impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional air
quality over southern (western and eastern) Canada and northern Mexico are
examined by comparing future summers' (i.e., 2049–2051) average regional
O3 and PM2.5 concentrations with historic concentrations (i.e.,
2000–2002 summers). Air quality modeling was conducted using CMAQ and
meteorology downscaled from the GISS-GCM using MM5. Emissions for North
America are found using US EPA, Mexican and Canadian inventories and
projected emissions following CAIR and IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Higher
temperatures for all sub-regions and regional changes in mixing height,
insolation and precipitation are forecast in the 2049-2051 period. Future
emissions are calculated to be lower over both Canadian sub-regions, but
higher over northern Mexico. Global climate change, alone, is predicted to
affect PM2.5 concentrations more than O3 for the projections used
in this study: average daily maximum eight (8) hour O3 (M8hO3)
concentrations are estimated to be slightly different in all examined
sub-regions while average PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be
higher over both Canadian sub-regions (8% over western and 3% over
eastern) but 11% lower over northern Mexico. More days are forecast where
M8hO3 concentrations are over 75 ppb in all examined sub-regions but the
number of days where PM2.5 concentration will be over 15 μg/m3 is projected higher only over western Canada. Climate change
combined with the projected emissions lead to greater change in pollutant
concentrations: average M8hO3 concentrations are simulated to be 6%
lower over western Canada and 8% lower over eastern Canada while average
PM2.5 concentrations are simulated to be 5% lower over western
Canada and 11% lower over eastern Canada. Although future emissions over
northern Mexico are projected higher, pollutant concentrations are simulated
to be lower due to US emissions reductions. Global climate change combined
with the projected emissions will decrease average M8hO3 4% and
PM2.5 17% over northern Mexico. Significant reductions in the number
of days where M8hO3 concentrations are over 75 ppb and PM2.5 concentration over 15 μg/m3 are also projected with a significant
reduction in peak values. |
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