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| Titel |
Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Ziehmann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 8, no. 6 ; Nr. 8, no. 6, S.419-428 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005886
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-8-419-2001.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ensemble Prediction
has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this
paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a
priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived
from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data
set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The
results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful
information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble
entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it
is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect
to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost
unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less
promising. |
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