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| Titel |
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium – Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Hind, A. Moberg, R. Sundberg |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2012-08-27), S.1355-1365 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005717
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-8-1355-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The statistical framework of Part 1 (Sundberg
et al., 2012), for comparing ensemble
simulation surface temperature output with temperature proxy and instrumental
records, is implemented in a pseudo-proxy experiment. A set of previously
published millennial forced simulations (Max Planck Institute – COSMOS),
including both "low" and "high" solar radiative forcing histories
together with other important forcings, was used to define "true" target
temperatures as well as pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental series. In a
global land-only experiment, using annual mean temperatures at a 30-yr time
resolution with realistic proxy noise levels, it was found that the low and
high solar full-forcing simulations could be distinguished. In an additional
experiment, where pseudo-proxies were created to reflect a current set of
proxy locations and noise levels, the low and high solar forcing simulations
could only be distinguished when the latter served as targets. To improve
detectability of the low solar simulations, increasing the signal-to-noise
ratio in local temperature proxies was more efficient than increasing the
spatial coverage of the proxy network. The experiences gained here will be of
guidance when these methods are applied to real proxy and instrumental data,
for example when the aim is to distinguish which of the alternative solar
forcing histories is most compatible with the observed/reconstructed climate. |
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