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| Titel |
The predictability of the "Voyager" accident |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Bertotti, L. Cavaleri |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 3 ; Nr. 8, no. 3 (2008-05-30), S.533-537 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005531
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-533-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| On 14 February 2005 a severe mistral storm caused substantial damage to the
passenger cruiser "Voyager" between Balearic Islands and Sardinia. The
storm had been well predicted. However, the ship was hit by one or more,
apparently unexpected, large waves. Our aim was to understand if this was a
freak event or it was within the expectable probability. At this aim we use
our best estimate of the local wave conditions, obtained combining modelling
and measured data. Starting from these we derive the probability of large
waves, considering both linear and non-linear cases. Notwithstanding a
correction towards the worse of the, otherwise inconsistent, available
reports, on the basis of the data at disposal we conclude that, given the
local conditions, the event was within the range of the potentially
expectable wave heights. This turns out to be even more the case on the
basis of recent results based on theoretical and experimental data. |
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