 |
| Titel |
Snow loads in a changing climate: new risks? |
| VerfasserIn |
U. Strasser |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 1 ; Nr. 8, no. 1 (2008-01-09), S.1-8 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005316
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-1-2008.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| In January/February 2006, heavy snowfalls in Bavaria (Germany) lead to a
series of infrastructural damage of catastrophic nature. Since on many
collapsed roofs the total snow load was not exceptional, serious engineering
deficiencies in roof construction and a sudden rise in the total snow load
were considered to be the trigger of the events. An analysis of the then
meteorological conditions reveals, that the early winter of 2005/2006 was
characterised by an exceptional continuous snow cover, temperatures remained
around the freezing point and no significant snowmelt was evident. The
frequent freezing/thawing cycles were followed by a general compaction of
the snow load. This resulted in a re-distribution and a new concentration of
the snow load on specific locations on roofs. With respect to climate
change, the question arises as to whether the risks relating to snow loads
will increase. The future probability of a continuous snow cover occurrence
with frequent freezing/thawing cycles will probably decline due to predicted
higher temperatures. However, where temperatures remain low, an increase in
winter precipitation will result in increased snow loads. Furthermore, the
variability of extremes is predicted to increase. If heavy snowfall events
are more frequent, the risk of a trigger event will likely increase.
Finally, an attempt will be made here in this paper to outline a concept for
an operational warning system for the Bavarian region. This system envisages
to predict the development and risk of critical snow loads for a 3-day time
period, utilising a combination of climate and snow modelling data and using
this together with a snow pillow device (located on roofs) and the results
of which. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|