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| Titel |
Sensitivity of the attractor of the barotropic ocean model to external influences: approach by unstable periodic orbits |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Kazantsev |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 8, no. 4/5 ; Nr. 8, no. 4/5, S.281-300 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005300
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-8-281-2001.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A description of a
deterministic chaotic system in terms of unstable periodic orbits (UPO) is
used to develop a method of an a priori estimate of the sensitivity
of statistical averages of the solution to small external influences. This
method allows us to determine the forcing perturbation which maximizes the
norm of the perturbation of a statistical moment of the solution on the
attractor. The method was applied to the barotropic ocean model in order
to determine the perturbation of the wind field which provides the
greatest perturbation of the model's climate. The estimates of
perturbations of the model's time mean solution and its mean variance
were compared with directly calculated values. The comparison shows that
some 20 UPOs is sufficient to realize this approach and to obtain a good
accuracy. |
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