| The scientific
problems posed by the Earth's fluid envelope, and its atmosphere,
oceans, and the land surface that interacts with them are central to major
socio-economic and political concerns as we move into the 21st century. It
is natural, therefore, that a certain impatience should prevail in
attempting to solve these problems. The point of this review paper is that
one should proceed with all diligence, but not excessive haste: "festina
lente," as the Romans said two thousand years ago, i.e. "hurry
in a measured way." The paper traces the necessary progress through
the solutions to the ten problems:
1. What is the coarse-grained structure of low-frequency
atmospheric variability, and what is the connection between its episodic
and oscillatory description?
2. What can we predict beyond one week, for how long,
and by what methods?
3. What are the respective roles of intrinsic ocean
variability, coupled ocean-atmosphere modes, and atmospheric forcing in
seasonal-to-interannual variability?
4. What are the implications of the answer to the
previous problem for climate prediction on this time scale?
5. How does the oceans' thermohaline circulation
change on interdecadal and longer time scales, and what is the role of the
atmosphere and sea ice in such changes?
6. What is the role of chemical cycles and biological
changes in affecting climate on slow time scales, and how are they
affected, in turn, by climate variations?
7. Does the answer to the question above give us some
trigger points for climate control?
8. What can we learn about these problems from the
atmospheres and oceans of other planets and their satellites?
9. Given the answer to the questions so far, what is the
role of humans in modifying the climate?
10. Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our
planet by the end of the century?
A unified framework is proposed to deal with these
problems in succession, from the shortest to the longest timescale, i.e.
from weeks to centuries and millennia. The framework is that of dynamical
systems theory, with an emphasis on successive bifurcations and the
ergodic theory of nonlinear systems. The main ideas and methods are
outlined and the concept of a modelling hierarchy is introduced. The
methodology is applied across the modelling hierarchy to Problem 5, which
concerns the thermohaline circulation and its variability.
Key words. Climate dynamics, nonlinear systems,
numerical bifurcations, mathematical geophysics |