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| Titel |
Modelling floods in the Ammer catchment: limitations and challenges with a coupled meteo-hydrological model approach |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Ludwig, S. Taschner, W. Mauser |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 7, no. 6 ; Nr. 7, no. 6, S.833-847 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004858
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-7-833-2003.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Numerous applications of hydrological models have shown their capability to
simulate hydrological processes with a reasonable degree of certainty. For flood modelling,
the quality of precipitation data — the key input parameter — is very important but often
remains questionable. This paper presents a critical review of experience in the EU-funded
RAPHAEL project. Different meteorological data sources were evaluated to assess their
applicability for flood modelling and forecasting in the Bavarian pre-alpine catchment of
the Ammer river (709 km2), for which the hydrological aspects of runoff
production are described as well as the complex nature of floods. Apart from conventional
rain gauge data, forecasts from several Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP) as well
as rain radar data are examined, scaled and applied within the framework of a
GIS-structured and physically based hydrological model. Multi-scenario results are compared
and analysed. The synergetic approach leads to promising results under certain
meteorological conditions but emphasises various drawbacks. At present, NWPs are the only
source of rainfall forecasts (up to 96 hours) with large spatial coverage and high temporal
resolution. On the other hand, the coarse spatial resolution of NWP grids cannot yet
address, adequately, the heterogeneous structures of orographic rainfields in complex
convective situations; hence, a major downscaling problem for mountain catchment
applications is introduced. As shown for two selected Ammer flood events, a high
variability in prediction accuracy has still to be accepted at present. Sensitivity
analysis of both meteo-data input and hydrological model performance in terms of process
description are discussed and positive conclusions have been drawn for future
applications of an advanced meteo-hydro model synergy.
Keywords: RAPHAEL, modelling, forecasting, model coupling, PROMET-D, TOPMODEL |
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