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Titel |
Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030 |
VerfasserIn |
V. Eyring, D. S. Stevenson, A. Lauer, F. J. Dentener, T. Butler, W. J. Collins, K. Ellingsen, M. Gauss, D. A. Hauglustaine, I. S. A. Isaksen, M. G. Lawrence, A. Richter, J. M. Rodriguez, M. Sanderson, S. E. Strahan, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. P. C. Noije, O. Wild |
Medientyp |
Artikel
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Sprache |
Englisch
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ISSN |
1680-7316
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Digitales Dokument |
URL |
Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 7, no. 3 ; Nr. 7, no. 3 (2007-02-14), S.757-780 |
Datensatznummer |
250004563
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Publikation (Nr.) |
copernicus.org/acp-7-757-2007.pdf |
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Zusammenfassung |
The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative
forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using
an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a
pre-defined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day
conditions (year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one
scenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other ship
emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030
(termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenic
emissions follow the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES
(Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burning
and natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of the
model results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25°–60° N)
oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models are
capable to reproduce ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2)
reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the marine
boundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changes
in annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated over
the Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the North
Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to
Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shipping
to annual mean near-surface O3 are found over the North Atlantic (5–6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to tropospheric
O3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000
and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O3 forcings due to shipping are
9.8±2.0 mW/m2 in 2000 and 13.6±2.3 mW/m2 in 2030.
Whilst increasing O3, ship NOx simultaneously enhances hydroxyl
radicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing a
negative radiative forcing. The models show future increases in NOx and
O3 burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOx
emission totals. Increasing emissions from shipping would
significantly counteract the benefits derived from reducing SO2
emissions from all other anthropogenic sources under the A2 scenario over
the continents, for example in Europe. Globally, shipping contributes 3%
to increases in O3 burden between 2000 and 2030, and 4.5% to
increases in sulphate under A2/CGS. However, if future ground based
emissions follow a more stringent scenario, the relative importance of ship
emissions will increase. Inter-model differences in the simulated O3
contributions from ships are significantly smaller than estimated
uncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the ship
emission totals, the distribution of the emissions over the globe, and the
neglect of ship plume dispersion. |
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