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| Titel |
Unsatisfying forecast of a Mediterranean cyclone: a verification study employing state-of-the-art techniques |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Casaioli, S. Mariani, C. Accadia, N. Tartaglione, A. Speranza, A. Lavagnini, M. Bolliger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2005) ; Nr. 7 (2006-09-28), S.379-386 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004319
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-7-379-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| On 16–17 November 2000, a relatively intense precipitation event on
the north-western Italy was heavily underestimated, mainly due to
shifting error, by three operational 10-km limited area models (LAMs)
which differ about basic equations, domain size, and
parameterisation schemes. The scope of the work is to investigate
possible common error-sources independent from the single model, in
particular the effect of initialisation. Thus, the complex
evolution over the western Mediterranean Sea of the cyclone
responsible for the event was investigated. Several objective and
subjective verification techniques have been employed to check one
of the LAMs' forecast against the available observations
(precipitation from rain gauge and retrieved from ground-based
radar, and satellite-retrieved atmospheric humidity patterns).
Despite a clear statement is not achieved, results indicate that
high sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the inadequacy of
the observational network on the southern Mediterranean area, can play a
major role in producing the forecast shifting error on the target
area. |
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