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| Titel |
Application of the MM5 and the analogous method to heavy rainfall event, the case of 16-18 October 2003 in Catalonia (NE Spain) |
| VerfasserIn |
V. Altava-Ortiz, A. Barrera, M. C. Llasat, Prat, J. Gibergans-Báguena, M. Barnolas |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2005) ; Nr. 7 (2006-04-21), S.313-319 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004310
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-7-313-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Between the 16 and 18 October 2003, some amounts of precipitation
greater than 225mm and sea waves higher than 8.5m were recorded in
Catalonia (NE Spain) and near its coast. Some rivers in the NE of the region
were overflowed and the sea swell produced several damages near the coast.
In order to analyse this case and to improve the forecasting of events like
this, two methodologies have been applied: one deterministic and another
one, probabilistic. The deterministic analysis has been made by using the
MM5 mesoscale model. A 48 h simulation has been designed for three domains
connected with two way nesting and having 54, 18, 6 km horizontal grid
resolution and vertical resolution of 23 levels, and it has been initialised
with the NCEP Analyses. The simulation suggests that orography played an
important role on the precipitation generation (maxima were located where
the wind at low levels impinged on the mountain ranges perpendicularly). The
strong pressure gradient produced in the North of Catalonia and West part of
the Gulf of Lyon, was the responsible of the great marine alteration. On the
other hand, the 6 km resolution precipitation forecast for Catalonia is
accurate, since it shows a spatial distribution and amounts quite similar to
the observations obtained from 315 automatic rain gauges. The analogous
technique applied here, considers the meteorological situations similar to
the current one, in terms of the 850 and 1000 hPa geopotential fields at 00:00 UTC
and 12:00 UTC from the NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis for the period
1958–2003. Two windows have been considered, the first one from 60° N to
30° N and from 30° W to 30° E, and the second one, centred in
Catalonia, from 45° N to 37.5° N and from 5° W to 10° E. The
best 100 analogous have been selected and the comparison of the results with
those obtained for other heavy rainfall events has been also done. |
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