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| Titel |
Quantifying the discharge forecast uncertainty by different approaches to probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, F. Nerozzi, T. Paccagnella, A. Montani |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2005) ; Nr. 7 (2006-02-28), S.189-191 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004291
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-7-189-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A probabilistic approach to flood prediction over the Reno river basin, a
medium-sized catchment in Northern Italy, has been tested using two
different meteorological ensemble systems. The future precipitation
scenarios are provided either by an analogue-based technique (statistical
approach) or by a limited-area ensemble prediction system (dynamical
approach), then used as different inputs to a distributed rainfall-runoff
model. The ensemble of possible future flows so generated allows to convey a
quantification of uncertainty about the discharge forecast. The
probabilistic discharge forecasts, based on the precipitation forecast
provided by the two ensembles, are then compared to the deterministic one
obtained by the rainfall-runoff model fed on precipitation input provided by
a non-hydrostatic meteorological model, run at 7km of horizontal
resolution. For this case study, the dynamical approach appears to be more
feasible in providing useful discharge ensemble forecast than the
statistical one, because the observed large spread among members obtained
with the analogue method makes difficult to issue real-time flood warnings. |
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