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| Titel |
Monte Carlo ice flow modeling projects a new stable configuration for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, c. 2020 |
| VerfasserIn |
W. Colgan, W. T. Pfeffer, H. Rajaram, W. Abdalati, J. Balog |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 6, no. 6 ; Nr. 6, no. 6 (2012-11-26), S.1395-1409 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003874
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-6-1395-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Due to the abundance of observational datasets collected since the onset of
its retreat (c. 1983), Columbia Glacier, Alaska, provides an exciting
modeling target. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of the form and flow of
Columbia Glacier, using a 1-D (depth-integrated) flowline model, over a wide
range of parameter values and forcings. An ensemble filter is imposed
following spin-up to ensure that only simulations that accurately reproduce
observed pre-retreat glacier geometry are retained; all other simulations
are discarded. The selected ensemble of simulations reasonably reproduces
numerous highly transient post-retreat observed datasets. The selected
ensemble mean projection suggests that Columbia Glacier will achieve a new
dynamic equilibrium (i.e. "stable") ice geometry c. 2020, at which time
iceberg calving rate will have returned to approximately pre-retreat values.
Comparison of the observed 1957 and 2007 glacier geometries with the
projected 2100 glacier geometry suggests that Columbia Glacier had already
discharged ~82% of its projected 1957–2100 sea level rise
contribution by 2007. This case study therefore highlights the difficulties
associated with the future extrapolation of observed glacier mass loss rates
that are dominated by iceberg calving. |
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