| The derivation of probabilities of high wind speeds and the establishment of
risk curves for storm damage is of prime importance in natural hazard risk
analysis. Risk curves allow the assessment of damage being exceeded at a
given level of probability.
In this paper, a method for the assessment of winter storm damage risk is
described in detail and applied to the German state of
Baden-Württemberg. Based on meteorological observations of the years
1971–2000 and on damage information of 4 severe storm events, storm hazard
and damage risk of residential buildings is calculated on the level of
communities. For this purpose, highly resolved simulations of storm wind
fields with the Karlsruher Atmospheric Mesoscale Model (KAMM) are performed
and a storm damage model is developed.
Risk curves including the quantification of the uncertainties are calculated
for every community. Local differences of hazard and risk are presented in
state-wide maps. An average annual winter storm damage to residential
buildings of minimum 15 million Euro (reference year 2000) for
Baden-Württemberg is expected. |