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| Titel |
The use of HBV model for flash flood forecasting |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Kobold, M. Brilly |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 6, no. 3 ; Nr. 6, no. 3 (2006-05-24), S.407-417 |
| Datensatznummer |
250003504
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-6-407-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The standard conceptual HBV model was originally developed with daily data
and is normally operated on daily time step. But many floods in Slovenia are
usually flash floods as result of intense frontal precipitation combined
with orographic enhancement. Peak discharges are maintained only for hours
or even minutes. To use the HBV model for flash flood forecasting, the
version of HBV-96 has been applied on the catchment with complex topography
with the time step of one hour. The recording raingauges giving hourly
values of precipitation have been taken in calibration of the model. The
uncertainty of simulated runoff is mainly the result of precipitation
uncertainty associated with the mean areal precipitation and is higher for
mountainous catchments. Therefore the influence of number of raingauges used
to derive the areal precipitation by the method of Thiessen polygons was
investigated.
The quantification of hydrological uncertainty has been performed by
analysis of sensitivity of the HBV model to error in precipitation input.
The results show that an error of 10% in the amount of precipitation
causes an error of 17% in the peak of flood wave. The polynomial
equations showing the relationship between the errors in rainfall amounts
and peak discharges were derived for two water stations on the Savinja
catchment. Simulated discharges of half-yearly runs demonstrate the
applicability of the HBV model for flash flood forecasting using the
mesoscale meteorological forecasts of ALADIN/SI model as input precipitation
data. |
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